How to read a glamping income projection: occupancy, nightly rate and seasonality

Three numbers drive the result

Revenue from a cabin is the number of nights available, multiplied by occupancy (the share of nights that are booked) and by the nightly rate. Everything else — costs, payouts, ROI — is built on top of those three inputs.

Why seasonality matters

Occupancy and rates are not flat across the year. Our calculator applies a seasonality factor to your yearly averages. Summer months get a factor above 1 (July is 1.30), winter months below 1 (February is 0.70). That is why an average of 65% occupancy does not mean 65% in every month: in the model it is higher in the summer and lower in the winter.

You can see the monthly breakdown on the location page and in the calculator.

An example

Take an average occupancy of 65% and an average nightly rate of €170. After applying the monthly factors, the model gives about €43,100 of revenue per year from roughly 241 occupied nights.

How sensitive is that?

Change	Yearly revenue (model)
Occupancy 55%, rate €170	about €37,000
Occupancy 65%, rate €170	about €43,100
Occupancy 75%, rate €170	about €50,100
Occupancy 65%, rate €150	about €38,100
Occupancy 65%, rate €190	about €48,200

Ten points of occupancy move revenue by roughly €6,000–7,000; a €20 change in the nightly rate moves it by around €5,000.

From revenue to what is left

Revenue is not profit. In the calculator’s cost model, operating costs take 69% of revenue (staff 14%, utilities 5%, marketing and booking fees 18%, maintenance 10%, taxes 8%, other 2%, VAT 12%), which leaves an operating profit (EBITDA) of about 31%. After a 2% reserve fund and an 8% operator fee, about 21% of revenue remains as net profit.

The calculator also assumes that revenue in years 4–10 is 15% higher than in years 1–3.

What the investor receives

In the calculator, the investor’s return is a percentage of revenue (the default is 22% of gross revenue), averaged over ten years. Divide that annual return by the property cost to get ROI, and the property cost by the annual return to get the payback period. The exact basis for a real cabin is set in the contract.

How to use this

• Run the calculator with conservative numbers first, then compare with optimistic ones.
• Pay attention to the occupancy you assume in winter months.
• Remember that these are forecasts: open the calculator and discuss your numbers with us.